Variable Renewable Energy Solutions for Small Island Developing State: Comparative Analysis of Capacity Factor and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)

As a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), Mauritius has a greater obligation to transit towards renewable sources of energy to minimize its dependency on fossil fuels, reduce the environmental impacts and enhance its resilience against volatility of fuel prices. Bagasse was the main source of renewable biomass for co-generation thermal facilities on the island, accounting for 8.8 % in the overall energy generation in 2024. Besides bagasse, other sources which contributed towards renewable energy, namely hydro and common Variable Renewable Energies (VREs) such as solar Photovoltaic (PV) and wind accounted for 4.0, 4.6 and 0.33 % in the overall energy generation, respectively. Moreover, the contribution of VREs between 2014 and 2024 in the total energy generation displayed only a marginal increase from 0.1 to 4.93 %. This study was therefore conducted to probe into some of the determinant factors affecting the transition towards renewable energy in Mauritius by analyzing key techno-economic metrics such as the Capacity Factor (CF) and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Analysis of CF showed that IPP-thermal displayed highest CF at approximately 80 % in contrast to CEB-thermal which was far lower at about 37 %. On the other hand, CF for VREs were significantly lower than thermal ones at approximately 15 %. The higher CFs observed in thermal plants were driven by their continuous fuel supply with newer generators, such as from IPP thermal, postulated to provide greater CF owing to their higher efficiency. Despite bearing a significantly higher LCOE value in comparison to VREs due to a higher upfront investment and operational costs, SIDS mainly depend on non-renewable sources like thermal to provide a stable and high-efficiency baseload. Moreover, with the abundance of solar irradiance and relatively lower LCOE, VREs still remain a viable solution to achieve long-term energy security for SIDS located in the tropics amid increasing geopolitical instability.