Decision-Making Framework for Sustainable Management of the Aral Sea Desiccated Basin under Uncertainty

The desiccated basin of the Aral Sea, once a major inland water body, exemplifies the severe ecological consequences of long-term mismanagement and climate-induced stress. Addressing this environmental crisis requires decision-making frameworks capable of balancing environmental, social, and economic objectives amidst significant uncertainty and data incompleteness. This study proposes a decision-support model grounded in Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set (IFS) theory, integrated within a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach, to manage the complex trade-offs inherent in the sustainable restoration of the Aral Sea region. By incorporating hesitation degrees alongside traditional membership and non-membership values, the model captures expert uncertainty and conflicting information more effectively than classical fuzzy or deterministic methods. A real-world case study – focused on water allocation and land rehabilitation – demonstrates the practical utility of the framework. The results highlight the model’s ability to enhance decision robustness, transparency, and reliability in uncertainty-dominated ecological systems, offering a scalable tool for environmental policy and sustainability planning in similar high-risk regions.