Assessment of Urban Evacuation Demand Based on Population Density under Seismic Events

Rapid and unplanned urbanization in different regions of Bangladesh has increased the need for evidence-based evacuation planning during natural hazards. Evacuation demand refers to the number of people who need to evacuate from an unsafe structure. However, this is not evenly distributed across urban populations. Conventional evacuation planning in Bangladeshi cities has often treated the population as a uniform mass. This paper assesses urban evacuation demand based on population density and demonstrates its application to the Rajshahi City Corporation (RCC). Rajshahi is a rapidly growing city in northwestern Bangladesh, divided into 30 administrative wards. To assess evacuation needs, ward-level population density is calculated using census population counts and the areas of the wards. The results show a clear pattern from the center to the periphery. The findings indicate that the demand for evacuation is not evenly distributed; instead, there is a higher concentration of population pressure in the central urban area. This study identifies the hotspots that represent potential evacuation demand and offers a spatial baseline for emergency preparedness and helps prioritize resource allocation in the RCC.