When Three Policies Move at Once: Module Market Evidence for Rooftop Solar Procurement in Bangladesh

The paper contributes to the literature by providing a empirical and policy-linked evaluation of rooftop solar module procurement in Bangladesh following the simultaneous implementation of the Net Metering Guidelines 2025, the June 2026 tariff adjustment, and S.R.O. No. 159 (Customs). First, it establishes a technical baseline by standardizing and filtering a market dataset of 121 photovoltaic module models across 27 brands, characterizing key metrics such as median power density (220.6 W/m²) and temperature-induced efficiency loss at 45°C (6.0%). Second, it quantifies the prosumer incentive compression caused by the June 2026 tariff order, demonstrating that a sharper percentage increase in bulk rates (19.85%) relative to retail rates (16.68%) reduced the self-consumption premium from 44.6% to 40.8%. Third, it reveals a novel “value inversion” phenomenon under net-metering settlement rules, where low-tariff consumer groups (such as lifeline and irrigation users) obtain 29.5% and 20.0% higher financial returns from exporting power than from self-consumption. Finally, by mapping effective import duty mechanics, the study corrects the common assumption of full zero-rating under S.R.O. 159, demonstrating that unexempted VAT leaves tax incidence at 17.00% (a 10.02% reduction), which was ultimately eclipsed by a 34.1% rise in upstream module costs and a net 21.9% increase in landed cost.