This paper’s main contribution is a non-linear, failure-mode-based degradation rate (Rd) model for solar PV, moving beyond the standard linear/performance-ratio approach. It introduces ΔT (DEL_T) — from thermal imaging — as a novel quantitative proxy for hotspot severity, combined with I–V-derived series resistance (R_s) as key ML inputs. Two models (LSTM and FFBP) are trained and cross-validated on an independent Telangana plant, achieving low RMSE and reasonable MAPE. It also argues an economical case: ~₹57,000 sensor-based ML approach vs. ₹16–45 lakh for conventional accelerated/on-field testing.
